The current world's largest stock by market capitalization, the "King of Computing Power," NVIDIA, suddenly plummeted by 5.5% overnight! Many people are worried that the artificial intelligence (AI) sector will crash when the A-share market opens tomorrow, and I believe this concern is justified. The current AI sector trend is essentially a reflection of market sentiment, with a lot of speculation involved, and it could crash at any time due to the slightest disturbance.
My view on the AI sector is that the AI industry has great development prospects in the long term, but it is not suitable to chase the AI sector that has already seen a huge increase, nor is it suitable to participate in the speculation of AI concepts. It is best to wait for the AI sector to cool down after a period of speculation, and when AI falls to a reasonable level, then gradually get involved in AI-related industries for the best investment choice.
NVIDIA's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has reached over 70 times. Some people think its valuation is too high, while others think it is still very low. To be honest, I really don't know whether its valuation is high or low. Because my understanding of it is quite average, and I don't have much knowledge about the global computing power industry. I am not clear whether it will still be able to maintain the current high performance growth next year. If it can still maintain the current growth rate, then its current price is not high. If the performance growth rate declines next year, then its current stock price may seem relatively high.
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If the work NVIDIA is doing can be basically achieved by just burning money, then it will be difficult for NVIDIA to have the current good performance next year. Since I don't understand the technical value of the work NVIDIA is doing, I cannot value NVIDIA.
I admit that my understanding of the AI industry and NVIDIA is insufficient, so I choose to stay away from the AI industry. In the future, I will only participate in AI index funds in a relatively low position. I believe that there is no need to understand everything in investment, and it is also impossible to understand everything. Grasping a few industry sectors that you understand, studying in depth, and investing well is enough.
Investors who are envious of sectors that perform well and want to buy and chase everything will find it difficult to have good investment returns in the long run. I only hold a heavy position in the consumer and new energy industries that I am more familiar with, and other sectors are moderately light.
Electricity consumption is the "thermometer" of the national economy. Since the beginning of this year, China's economy has continued to warm up. In the first two months, the national unified power generation increased by 11.7% year-on-year, and the industrial electricity consumption increased by 9.7%. The consumer industry has also shown a significant performance rebound. For example,
Wangfujing announced that it is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 650 million yuan to 780 million yuan in 2023, an increase of 455.08 million yuan to 585.08 million yuan compared with the same period last year, an increase of 233.47% to 300.17% year-on-year.
Lao Feng Xiang Company's 2023 performance report shows that it is expected to achieve operating income of 714.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.37%; the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2.214 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.23%.Cai Bai's share performance forecast for 2023 indicates an expected realization of net profit attributable to the parent company of 670 million yuan to 735 million yuan, an increase of 45.61% to 59.74% year-on-year. Jin Jiang Hotel's performance forecast for 2023 shows an expected realization of net profit attributable to the parent company of 950 million yuan to 1.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 737% to 825%. The cosmetics company Wanmei's share performance forecast for 2023 indicates an expected realization of net profit attributable to the parent company of 300 million yuan to 330 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72% to 89%.
The domestic economy is improving, and the recovery of consumption is an undeniable fact. Therefore, under the basic premise of the domestic economy warming up, it is a natural thing for us investors to heavily layout A-shares at a low position in the market.
The current A-share market is at a low position of 3,000 points, and the valuations of many industry sectors are relatively cheap. Therefore, what to buy now may make money in the future. In such a low position of the market, it is not too important to choose stocks and industries now. Therefore, it is actually a great opportunity to invest in a broad-based index fund.
Wind data shows that as of March 8, the scale of Huatai Bo Rui Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETF reached 195.658 billion yuan. At present, the scale of this fund is increasing at a rate of several billion yuan every day, and it is estimated that it will soon exceed 200 billion yuan. It is currently the largest fund in the market! A year ago, the scale of this fund was only 60 billion yuan. Similarly, the scale of Yifangda Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETF and Huaxia Shanghai 50 ETF also jumped to 100 billion yuan. It can be seen that in recent years, broad-based index funds have been widely recognized and sought after by the market.
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